At the 2017 Web Summit, three experts clarified what these new air vehicles will look like and drew the contours of this future market.
Yes, we are going to live in a world where it will be usual to travel in a flying car. It only remains to be determined: when and how? This is assured by François Chopard, founder of the start-up accelerator Starburst Aerospace, Alexander Zosel, co-founder of Volocopter, and Mathias Thomsen, head of urban mobility at Airbus.
The three experts were invited to a conference on the subject this week at the Web Summit in Lisbon. “In our cities with congested traffic, we think that this arrival is irresistible. The demand is there, everything now depends on the supply, “assures Mathias Thomsen, whose company is working on two flying machine projects.
“With flying cars, we no longer kill nature, we no longer need to build roads or tunnels, no longer need tires, and it’s less noisy: the public will see these advantages,” adds Alexander Zosel.
Uber plans flying taxis from 2020
What will flying cars look like?
Image of Epinal from science fiction films, the flying car inspires many independent companies and aeronautical groups: Zee. Aero (of which the founder of Google Larry Page is a shareholder), Terrafugia, Uber, Hover surf, Aero Mobil, PAL-V, Toyota, DeLorean Aerospace, Ehang, Airbus, Volocopter … The different prototypes range from classic winged cars to sophisticated drones with multiple engines.
“There are dozens and dozens of projects,” confirms François Chopard. “But what emerges today is a model which is a mix between that of Volocopter (machine equipped with 18 electric rotors) and a model with wings”, he assures us.
According to him, the Volocopter has two drawbacks: its large number of propellers, which are too large, and the absence of wings, which reduces the autonomy of the aircraft. “If something goes wrong, we must be able to wait a little bit in the air,” emphasizes the investor. In addition, the wings allow you to go faster and save fuel”.
The expert also believes that the flying car of the future will be able to take off vertically, a feature that makes it more suitable for cities.
The strongest projects: Joby, Lilium, Aurora
What are the most solid projects, according to the world’s leading incubator dedicated to aeronautics and space start-ups? There is that of the German start-up Lilium, a vertical take-off jet, that of the American Joby Aviation, an electric plane capable of peaks at 320 km / h and that of Aurora Flight Sciences, acquired by Boeing and which has already partnered with Uber.
Obviously, Volocopter and Airbus also firmly believe in their respective projects. The device of the young German shoot is capable of carrying two passengers by means of 18 electric rotors, with an autonomy of 20 minutes. Airbus is working on two projects: the Vahana single-seater drone and the “two-in-one” Pop Up machine, which can be transformed into a car or an aerial vehicle.
Taxis, premium version
The three experts agree on one point: individuals will not have a flying car in their garage, at least initially. “We can already see it with classic cars, fewer and fewer people own them,” notes François Chopard. “In addition, these vehicles will be relatively expensive and will need to be recharged in very specific places”.
Airbus is counting on a use like that of taxis, premium version. “People will use it to get from point A to point B faster, to get to the airport or to an important meeting. They will be prepared to pay twice as much if the journey is twice as fast, “predicts Mathias Thomsen.
At Volocopter, we bet on regular “open space” lines, which is to say outside the cities. “We can also make trips on demand, for those who want to go on a weekend trip.”
Is there a pilot in the flying car?
Will we see self-driving or human-driven flying cars? “Everything will depend on public acceptance,” said the manager at Airbus for whom unmanned vehicles inspire more confidence because errors are “more often of human origin”.
“The battle for autonomy has a better chance of succeeding in the air”, abounds François Chopard. “The environment is easier to describe, and the rules that apply are already used for aviation.” On the other hand, he believes, there are chances that the first vehicles are not autonomous, because of “the regulation, which is not yet suitable for large drones”.
Between 500 and 1000 cars per city
“Nobody wants a sky full of flying vehicles, like in the scene from the movie ‘The fifth element'”, judge the boss of Volocopter. Investor François Chopard has a very precise idea of the traffic that will be put in place: “Uber provides an illustration of passenger flows. The market for big cities is estimated at between 500 and 1000 cars”.
This type of service should be installed “where air travel will be most in demand, where traffic jams are most numerous, where pollution is greatest”, says Airbus. “The Asian market is clearly on the list.”
Take off in three to five years
“Nothing is going to stop us”, assures Alexander Zosel. “The authorities know this is happening. Everyone is getting ready”. The Volocopter machine made its first test flight, in real condition, in Dubai a few weeks ago. The first demonstration during which the public will be able to test the vehicle will take place in three to five years, he estimates.
Same schedule for Airbus: Mathias Thomsen sees the arrival of flying cars between 2020 and 2022. “It has already started to take shape. There will be other tests in the next three years, and we will have a commercial reality in five years,”he explains.
It only remains to work on “reliability and safety”, according to François Chopard, now that the drone has opened the way by democratizing “autonomy, autopilot, the combination with GPS, and that the machines operate at electric and are therefore much cheaper ”.
“The FAA (Federal Aviation Administration, editor’s note) says it is ready to certify the first vertical electric vehicle by 2020. By the time the applications are approved, we will have commercial services within five years,” he said. . See you in the future, in 2022.
